2025 State Budget: Can Economic Assumptions Maintain National Stability?

Jakarta, INTI - Yesterday morning, Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati attended a working meeting with Commission XI of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR RI) at the Senayan Complex in Jakarta. The meeting also included the Minister of National Development Planning/Head of Bappenas Suharso Monoarfa, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo, Chairman of the OJK Mahendra Siregar, and Acting Head of BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss and agree upon the Basic Economic Assumptions, Development Targets, and Development Indicators for the 2025 State Budget (RAPBN).

The agreed-upon basic economic assumptions form a crucial foundation for shaping national economic policies. The projected economic growth is set at 5.2% YoY, with inflation controlled at 2.5% YoY, and the Rupiah expected to be at IDR 16,000 per USD. Additionally, the 10-year government bond interest rate is forecasted to be 7.0%.

Measuring the Quality of Economic Growth

During the meeting, Sri Mulyani emphasized the importance of maintaining inclusive, sustainable, and high-quality economic growth. Economic growth that benefits only a few is insufficient to address global economic challenges. Therefore, the government is committed to ensuring that every policy within the 2025 State Budget provides positive impacts for all segments of society, including those in regional areas.

Regional development programs will be key to achieving regional economic growth. Strengthened regional transfer policies will support equitable development across Indonesia. This approach aims to ensure that not only central regions benefit from economic growth but also underserved and remote areas.

Challenges in Taxation for 2025

In addition to discussing economic assumptions, the meeting highlighted the need to optimize tax performance and governance. A major challenge is increasing the tax ratio, which is the ratio of tax revenue to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). To address this, the government plans to implement various tax policies, such as the Harmonized Tax Regulation Law (UU HPP), utilization of core tax systems, CEISA, and SIMBARA.

Sri Mulyani also revealed plans to introduce a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax, which aims not only to boost state revenue but also to control the consumption of sugary drinks that can harm public health. This tax proposal needs approval from the DPR RI and will be closely monitored to ensure its effectiveness.

Ensuring Stability and Sustainable Development

An important indicator in the 2025 State Budget is the open unemployment rate, targeted at 4.5-5.0%. The poverty rate is expected to be reduced to 7.0-8.0%, with extreme poverty targeted for elimination. The Gini Ratio, which measures income inequality, is expected to be between 0.379-0.382. The Human Capital Index, reflecting the quality of human resources, is targeted to increase to 0.56.

For agriculture and fisheries, the government aims for the Farmers' Exchange Rate (NTP) to be in the range of 115-120 and the Fishermen's Exchange Rate (NTN) to be between 105-108. These indicators are crucial in assessing whether the economic policies in the 2025 State Budget effectively improve community welfare.

Conclusion and Expectations

The working meeting with Commission XI of the DPR RI marks a critical moment for the government to ensure that the 2025 State Budget addresses Indonesia's economic challenges, both nationally and globally. With strong economic assumptions, clear development targets, and measurable indicators, the government is optimistic about maintaining stability and sustainable development.

However, future challenges are not easy. Effective policy implementation and rigorous oversight are key to ensuring that every rupiah in the 2025 State Budget is utilized for the benefit of the people. Sri Mulyani hopes that with the collaborative spirit between the government and the DPR, the 2025 State Budget will be an effective tool for achieving inclusive and sustainable economic growth.